Performance marketing for AI-era growth – backed by models, not gut feeling.

Does this subscription app's growth math ever close?

Terms used on this page

AEO – app event optimization: Meta bids for an in-app event, here the trial start · MAI – mobile app install optimization · VO – value optimization, bids for purchase value · SBP – Apple's Small Business Program, 15% commission instead of 30% · M13 – the horizon: 12 months of payments plus the first annual renewal in month 13 · P25 / P75 – the 25th / 75th percentile of the benchmark panel; the median (P50) is the default · CPT – cost per trial start · CPA – cost per subscriber.

How to use – 30 seconds
  1. Pick your vertical and geo – every benchmark fills itself from public data (RevenueCat, Adapty, Lebesgue, Interact…). The install→trial benchmark defaults to hard-paywall apps; switch the base to "All apps" for the raw RC panel median.
  2. Enter your plans and prices – the only thing the tool can't know.
  3. Press Calculate after every change (the default case is already computed). Override any field you have real data for – it turns blue = "my data" and is used as-is: season, optimization-event, platform and paid-traffic factors are not applied on top. Where each number lives in your own systems – Reference › Data sources.
  4. The scenario preset swings every remaining benchmark at once – conversions and retention to P25 / P75, CPM the opposite way, so Pessimistic = every stage against you. Ten stages at P25 compound into far worse than "a P25 app". Early stage? Switch retention to Fit from my first 2 renewals. Show a colleague your exact setup – Copy share link.
Questions this tool gets asked

Which apps is this for, and which is it not for?
Subscription apps only, in two funnels: app to app (store install) and web to web (quiz funnel, web checkout), acquired on Meta, behind a hard paywall. Ad-monetized apps (in-app advertising), hybrid models and commerce economics are out of scope.

What does M13 mean?
The horizon the calculator works to: 12 months of payments plus the first annual renewal, which falls in month 13. LTV, the payback month and the peak cash line are all computed to that point.

Where do the numbers come from if I enter nothing?
Everything except your plans and prices starts from a public benchmark – 24 inputs in the app funnel, 22 in the web funnel, for any of 6 verticals and 6 geos, from named sources such as RevenueCat, Adapty, Lebesgue, Apptweak, Adjust and Interact, each linked where it is used and all of them listed on the benchmark snapshots page. The median of the panel is the default; the scenario preset moves every remaining benchmark to P25 or P75 at once.

What happens when I put in my own number?
The field turns blue – my data – and is used as it is: the season, optimization-event, platform and paid-traffic factors are not applied on top of it. Where each of these numbers lives in your own systems is listed under Reference, Data sources.

How is this different from the LTV Calculator?
The LTV Calculator is this tool's LTV engine without the acquisition funnel: it answers what one subscriber is worth and you bring your own CPA. This tool starts from impressions and CPM and computes the funnel down to CPA itself.

Are VAT and the store commission taken out?
Yes. Net LTV is the payment schedule divided by (1 + VAT), times (1 – the store or PSP fee), times (1 + upsell). On store billing Apple or Google strip the VAT out first and take their 15 or 30% from what is left; on web billing you are the merchant and the PSP fee applies instead. The VAT rate defaults to the geo you acquire in and can be overridden.

Setup

Plans & prices (your data – required; mix must sum to 100%)

PlanOnPrice, $1st-period price, $ (intro offer – optional)1st price, $Share of subscriptions, %Share, %
Weekly$$%
Monthly$$%
Yearly$$%
1st-period price: what the first payment is charged at (e.g. $8.99 for the first week/month, $59.99 for the first year); every renewal is charged at the plan price. Leave blank when there is no intro offer.

Acquisition funnel

LTV inputs (M13 horizon)

Results

Press Calculate to compute the results with the current inputs.
…
–
Blended net LTV M13
–
Modeled CPA (cost per subscriber)
–
ROAS (net LTV ÷ CPA)
–
Payback month (net)
–
Modeled CPI (blended w/ organic)
–
Target CPA (at ROAS goal)
–
Target CPT / CPI (per trial / per install)
$

Sources · public benchmarks only, collected July 2026 and re-verified against the live pages on 4 Sep 2026; the data itself is of mixed vintage (RC / Adapty / Lebesgue / Triple Whale / RocketShip 2026, AppTweak H1 2024, Bïrch 2021–23, Superwall 2022, TUNE 2017) – see the why? on each field and verify before big bets. Fields tagged A are documented assumptions pending research. No client data anywhere in this tool.

✓ Run the built-in self-test 35 assertions, live in your browser

All sources – 24 links

RevenueCat SOSA 2026 · Adapty SOIS 2026 (paywall, trial, web and AI figures are from Adapty's paywall blog post below) · Adapty paywall data · Lebesgue CPM by country · ADCostly (TR) · Bïrch seasonality · Superads CTR · Triple Whale · AppTweak store CVR (2025 store averages) · Adjust – AppTweak H1 2024 category CVRs · Adapty – App Store conversion by category · SplitMetrics category CVR (via AppScreenshotStudio) · RC renewal rates by category · RC – the Android paywall gap · Interact quiz report · Superwall · Mobile Dev Memo (MAI/AEO) · Stripe – Apple Pay conversion lift · Stripe vs Paddle fees · RocketShip HQ – Meta app-install CPI/CPM 2026 · Meta location fees (Jul 2026) · Google Play – tax rates & VAT by country · Apple – price and tax updates.

About the author

Maria Atamanova – Senior Growth & Performance Marketing Manager and applied mathematician; twelve years growing businesses – apps, e-commerce, EdTech, AI data platforms – on numbers, not gut feeling.

“Does the growth math close?” is asked on every product, so it deserves one model that is sourced and tested rather than rebuilt from scratch. This one was proven on real work – Praktika, Toloka, Growth That Doesn’t Lie to Itself.

Hiring a senior growth or performance lead? See the case studies · hello@mariascales.com · LinkedIn