- At least 74% of companies actively posting on LinkedIn have their own careers page; excluding micro-companies and Easy Apply postings, the probability exceeds 90%.
- Two predictors: the application button (“Apply” to an external ATS ≈ 99%; “Easy Apply” 60–80%) and company size (1–10 employees 30–50%; 11–50 employees 70–85%; 50+ employees 95%+).
- Weighted calculation over hiring companies: 25% × 40% + 35% × 75% + 40% × 95% = 74.2%.
- The size-band probabilities are the author's estimates from observed hiring patterns, not sourced figures; the calculation is an illustrative approximation.
The sourcing cycle in the main article assumes that visiting a company's careers page is a viable alternative to relying solely on LinkedIn. This note justifies the assumption: at least 74% of companies actively posting on LinkedIn have a dedicated careers page.
Two Predictive Triggers
The presence of a careers section on a corporate website can be predicted with high accuracy from two factors: the application method used and the company's size.
Trigger 1: Application Button Type
- "Apply" button (redirects to external domain / ATS) → probability of a dedicated career page: ~99%
- "Easy Apply" (CVs collected directly within LinkedIn) → probability: 60–80%, as early-stage startups without their own infrastructure frequently use this feature
Trigger 2: Company Size
- Up to 10 employees – rarely have a career page: 30–50%
- 11–50 employees – basic hiring automation typical: 70–85%
- 50+ employees – industry standard: 95%+
Weighted Probability Calculation
The calculation uses the distribution of companies actively investing in job postings on LinkedIn – skewed toward more mature businesses, since micro-companies hire less frequently and in smaller volumes.
| Company Size (LinkedIn) | Est. Share Among Hiring Companies | Avg. Probability of Career Page | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–10 employees | 25% | 40% | 10.0% |
| 11–50 employees | 35% | 75% | 26.2% |
| 50+ employees | 40% | 95% | 38.0% |
| Total | 100% | ~74.2% |
Conclusion
If you take a random company currently running an active job posting on LinkedIn, the probability that it has its own website with a careers section is approximately 74%.
If you exclude micro-businesses (1–10 employees) and "Easy Apply" postings from the sample, the probability exceeds 90%.
This makes direct career page monitoring a reliable input to the sourcing cycle – not a gamble.