Performance marketing for AI-era growth – backed by models, not gut feeling.
TL;DR
  • A single stacked chart: eight columns – seven eras since the 1880s plus 2025→? – where every layer is a skill that was once the bottleneck and is now baseline.
  • Reading rule: the highlighted layer is the currently scarce skill; every layer beneath it got tooled and the value moved one layer up.
  • The eighth column shows all seven layers commoditised and a dashed, unclaimed layer on top – Domain Judgment – marked as a hypothesis, not a record.

Each era, yesterday's scarce skill becomes the new baseline. The scarce skill (highlighted, glowing) is always one layer above where the previous era left off.

This page is a single chart: a stacked view of how the floor of data-and-computing skills has risen, era by era, since the 1880s. For the full write-up of each era, see The Scarcity Ladder – A Timeline. For the argument this builds toward, see "The Floor Keeps Rising".
Commoditised / baseline
Currently scarce
Hypothesis (not yet scarce)
Show the data – 8 eras, 7 layers

Table 1. Same sequence as the diagram above: which skill was the bottleneck in each era, and how many layers underneath it had already become baseline.

EraThe scarce skillLayers below it, already baseline
1880s–1940sStatistical Intuition0
1950s–1970sProgramming & Algorithms1
1980s–1990sSQL & Databases2
2000–2012Distributed Systems3
2012–2020ML & Data Science4
2016–2022Deep Learning5
2022–NowCoding (LLMs)6
2025→?none – all seven are baseline7

Every column is a moment in time. Every layer beneath the glowing one is a skill that used to be the bottleneck and now isn't – it got tooled, and the value moved up. The 2025 → ? column shows all seven layers as fully commoditised baseline, with a dashed, unclaimed layer on top: Domain Judgment. That layer is marked differently on purpose. It hasn't happened yet, and – unlike every layer beneath it – it might not happen the same way. The other seven columns are a record. The eighth is a question.

Part of The Long Bet series
← The Floor Keeps Rising (Article 5) The full argument: the compression pattern, the three layers, and why mathematics is the layer that holds.
The Scarcity Ladder – A Timeline → Each of the seven eras in detail – what was abundant, what was scarce, and who was elite.
About the author

Maria Atamanova – Senior Growth & Performance Marketing Manager and applied mathematician; twelve years growing businesses – apps, e-commerce, EdTech, AI data platforms – on numbers, not gut feeling.

The method here – define the criteria, build the dataset, test every obvious answer – is the same one I use for growth teams; see the case studies.

Hiring a senior growth or performance lead? See the case studies · hello@mariascales.com · LinkedIn